Курс гривни - перспективы

[Nonstop]

"Если отталкиваться от данных г-на Шаповалова об использовании валюты из ЗВР с 1 января по 24 февраля с.г., то в распоряжении у Нацбанка должно оставаться около 28,5 млрд. долл., или 138,5 млрд. грн. по «меморандумному» курсу. Таким образом, на поддержание курса гривни у НБУ остается около 38 млрд. грн. до конца марта, что по текущему курсу интервенций на уровне 7,9 грн./долл. соответствует 4,1 млрд. долл.

 

Этой суммы достаточно, чтобы ежедневно продавать на межбанковском рынке по 200 млн. долл. Такого запаса хватило бы не только для стабилизации курса гривни, но даже для формирования тренда на укрепление национальной валюты и приведения межбанковского курса гривни в полное соответствие с текущим официальным курсом. Чтобы понять это, достаточно взглянуть на нацбанковские данные среднедневного спроса и предложения валюты на межбанковском рынке — 373 млн. долл. против 288,5 млн. долл. соответственно. Однако НБУ почему-то не хочет использовать имеющиеся в его запасе резервы, чтобы покрыть дефицит валюты, что также позволяет заподозрить заинтересованность регулятора в дальнейшем росте курса доллара." ну и далее..

Т.е. только спекуляциями объясняются приливы/отливы курса?

 

Не верьте комментариям. Прочитайте меморандум.

www.imf.org/external/np/loi/2008/ukr/103108.pdf

 

Надо вычесть из резервов транш МВФ.

Можете почитать более ранние посты по этому поводу...

www.stroimdom.com.ua/forum/showpost.php?p=172560&postcount=1857

www.stroimdom.com.ua/forum/showthread.php?p=172592#post172592

[_max_]

Еще конечно рано говорить , но никак президенту с СБУ удалось победить валютных спекулянтов ... с утра валюту на межбанке никто не продает ... На покупку стоит 14 заявок на продажу 1 . Согл укрдилинга ...

Вместо того, чтобы гоняться за спекулянтами как Дон Кихот за ветряными мельницами, могли бы поднять официальный курс до 8,5 и смотреть на вещи реально...

Сегодня слышал новость, что из 20 млрд. евро (или что-то около того) которые напрявят на помощь странам восточной Европы Украине не достанется ничего....нам остается расчитывать только на МВФ и ЕБРР(а он предлагает деньги только под конкретные инвестиционные проекты...)8-)

[сергей_петрович]

Сегодня слышал новость, что из 20 млрд. евро (или что-то около того) которые напрявят на помощь странам восточной Европы Украине не достанется ничего....нам остается расчитывать только на МВФ и ЕБРР(а он предлагает деньги только под конкретные инвестиционные проекты...)8-)

 

отклонили вчера план помощи восточной Европе, но даже если бы приняли, Украине не досталось бы все равно.

[banker]

1. IMF MISSION CHIEF TO UKRAINE HOLDS PRESS CONFERENCE

ON ECONOMIC PROGRAM OF THE UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES

 

Press Conference Transcript with Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, IMF Mission Chief to Ukraine

International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington, D.C., Friday, February 27, 2009

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. - MS. LOTZE: Good day, everybody. Welcome to this conference call on Ukraine with the IMF Mission Chief, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. I’m Conny Lotze of Media Relations.We don't have any documents to hand out, but there will be a transcript of this call posted on our website later, and I will have a sound file of the call, an audio file, right after this briefing.

 

Ceyla will have some opening remarks, and then we will turn over to your questions. Thank you very much. Ceyla?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: Thank you, Conny. Hello, everyone. Thank you very much for listening in to this conference call. I should start by saying that we are very encouraged by today's meeting of the authorities—the key decision makers—and their determination to move their economic program forward. We have already discussed it with key officials, and we are very glad to hear about this process.

 

We will continue to consult with them on the next steps and the measures that will pave the way for the conclusion of the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement. We are looking forward to continuing our discussions with the authorities next week in preparation for our return to Kiev.

 

I should also note that we have an excellent dialogue with the authorities. In the last two weeks, since returning back from Kiev, we have had several very productive conference calls with the Prime Minister, her team, the Ministry of Finance, the Presidential Secretariat, and the National Bank of Ukraine.

All of these have been extremely good, very collaborative, trying to work out a program that fits the needs of Ukraine.

 

As you know, we are in the midst of a global financial and economic crisis. And everyone is looking for ways to address the challenges they are facing. And every day, we are confronted with new challenges, new issues that need to be addressed. In this context, we have worked together with the authorities.

 

As President Yushchenko noted today, we have been working on a draft Letter of Intent. The authorities confirmed to us and also to the press earlier today that they will send us comments early next week that will form the basis of our discussions when we go back to Kiev.

 

In the last few weeks, our discussions with the authorities have focused on the implementation of a comprehensive Bank Resolution Strategy, which is a key component of the program; exchange and monetary policies; and the appropriate fiscal stance for 2009. And I would briefly like to mention to you where we stand vis-a-vis each of these issues.

 

You have heard these also from the authorities, so there is not that much new, but I thought maybe you would like to hear it from our perspective as well.

We strongly believe that resolute implementation of the Bank Resolution Strategy is key to restore confidence in the financial sector, to start bank lending, and to facilitate economic or recovery.

 

This is very important for Ukraine. And, as you know, in many countries, authorities are trying to address the challenges faced by the banking system.

The National Bank of Ukraine should be commended for designing and professionally implementing the diagnostic phase in line with international best practices.

 

I should note that these diagnostic studies were conducted by reputable audit companies for each bank based on agreed-upon principles which were designed by the NBU. These audits included stress tests to identify potential capital needs under adverse macroeconomic conditions. As you know, these were designed in October and November, and, again, I think the NBU deserves credit for going ahead with the methodologies that are being considered by some of the industrial countries today.

 

Based on the results of the diagnostic phase, the NBU conducted discussions with the largest 17 banks, accounting for about two thirds of the total banking sector assets. And most of them signed an agreement pledging to raise capital. The next phase of the bank recapitalization program involves potential public recapitalization support to viable banks in the context of an acceptable business plan.

 

In this context, we believe it is very important to appoint a high-level official, authorized by all coalition partners, to coordinate together with the National Bank of Ukraine the implementation of the Bank Resolution Strategy.

 

In terms of exchange rate policy, a consistent implementation of a flexible exchange rate regime is very important to cushion the economy and against the large external shocks it has been facing and it still faces.

 

The credible implementation of the monetary policy in the context of the floating exchange rate arrangement requires a strong and independent central bank, together with a very sound communications strategy.

 

However, the NBU’s efforts have been hampered so far by political interference, as well as numerous and, at times, conflicting public statements by various officials, participants, and so on about what the exchange rate should be, what banks are facing which issues and so on.

 

Given the fragility of public confidence, we believe it is of key importance that such statements are made by high-level NBU staff only; and that others respect this and allow the key policymakers—in this case, the National Bank—to make statements on such important issues.

 

Regarding fiscal policy, the deeper recession that has emerged since the inception of the authority’s economic program in October justifies a revision of the program’s initial target. We already mentioned that in our press statement before leaving Kiev.

 

The initial program had a balanced budget for 2009, but this is actually misleading, because the program has adjusters for bank recapitalization costs, which are expected to be about four and a half percent of GDP maximum, and any infrastructure investment financed by IFIs.

 

So, in October, when the program was designed, it was a preemptive bank recapitalization strategy, and the need for infrastructure investment, which was built into the program. However, since October, the global conditions have deteriorated. The economic and financial conditions of the major trading partners of Ukraine have deteriorated.

 

So, given these conditions, we had minus three percent outlook for growth in 2009. We have revised it to minus six. We may need to revise it, given the continuing deterioration of the trading partners of Ukraine. So a balanced budget, given the sharp decline in revenues, does not seem feasible at this point in time.

 

However, it is very important to keep the government deficit at the level consistent with available, and non-inflationary financing. In this regard, we are fully supportive of the authorities’ efforts to raise additional funding from multilateral and bilateral creditors.

 

We have been collaborating very closely with the World Bank. And if these efforts are successful, a higher deficit than originally envisaged, based on realistic macro assumptions, it can be built into the program to soften the economic downturn while making sure that the medium-term sustainability of government finances are preserved.

 

In this context, fiscal corrective measures are needed, as mentioned by the Prime Minister earlier this week and the President today; that these include improving the financial situation of the pension fund and actions to reduce the structural deficit of Naftogaz.

 

The authorities are also taking measures to ensure that the most vulnerable are protected through well-targeted social safety net programs, which is, again, a key component of the IMF-supported program as well.

 

I’ll stop here, and take questions. Thank you.

 

QUESTIONER: Thank you for the briefing, I simply didn't hear what you were saying. What are you expecting next week to come from the authorities in the Ukraine? What documents that will be a basis for further discussion?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: Right. What would be the key steps is basically, as it was announced by the authorities themselves today. They have signed a joint declaration. They have shown their determination that they will collaborate and move the economic program forward, which was, for us, a very important sign. So we are very encouraged by it.

 

We have had discussions with the Authorities for the past two weeks, as well during our visit in Kiev. And we have put together a draft Letter of Intent, which forms the basis for the revised program.

 

The authorities are now working on it, and, as the President announced earlier today, they are expecting to come back to us early next week with their own suggestions. As you can appreciate, this is their own program. They are taking ownership of it and coming back with what works out in the case of Ukraine.

 

Based on these discussions, we hope to go back to Kiev in the coming weeks. I also understand that the authorities will put to parliament some legislation which would allow them to correct the fiscal situation, especially in terms of the pension fund and other issues.

 

And we will be in discussions with them during the week and hope to be back to Kiev soon.

 

QUESTIONER: And secondly, if I may, more substantively, what do you say to those who say that the program was under-funded to begin with for Ukraine. And even if it was not under-funded, how likely is it that the Ukrainians will soon enough get the money, either from the program or from the bilateral donors whom you mentioned to tide them over for the time being, because I understand time is of the essence here.

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: Right. The program, when designed in October—and even now—is not under-funded in terms of balance of payments needs, which is what the IMF provides financing for. And from that perspective, the program remains well diagnosed and properly funded.

 

However, what one has to acknowledge is since October, with the recession, it has become very difficult for Ukraine to sustain the fiscal balances, because, as you know, with a recession, revenues come down, and even though the budget may be stringent, it has wage payments, pension payments, and so on. And, therefore, to be able to make sure to meet the budgetary needs, additional financing is necessary in the case of Ukraine.

 

Now, because the banking system is in fragile condition, because depositors are still taking out their deposits from the system—as confidence to the system has not yet returned, it is difficult for the authorities to finance the deficit by borrowing from domestic sources.

 

As you know the external sources are close to most countries, because of the global financial de-leveraging and financial conditions. Therefore, the only option for Ukraine to be able to run a budget deficit is to monetize it. And, as you know, this has implications for exchange rates and inflation and so on.

 

Therefore, as I said in my opening remarks, we support the authorities efforts to raise additional financing to balance the budget, to finance the budget, with some structural measures to make sure that in the medium term, and currently, that this is not inflationary, and that these are fiscally sound practices.

 

So, from that perspective, we will be working together with them and the World Bank to agree on a fiscal stance as well as the financing of such a stance.

And I think if the Authorities show commitment in terms of structural measures and corrective measures, I would hope that they would get the support from the World Bank, other multilaterals, and as well as bilateral support.

 

This, of course, includes us, and we have a program already, and we have been discussing in the context of our program the steps going forward. Thank you.

 

QUESTIONER: I would like to ask you what is the main question that the Ukrainian authorities need to accomplish to receive the second tranche of the credit. The Ukrainian authorities seem to be very optimistic about their chances to get the money. How do you assess this possibility? So which development is more likely to happen? Thank you.

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: I think the authorities—as we have seen from the discussions today, including the Prime Minister, the President, the central bank, and even the opposition—are putting together their own anti-crisis package and measures. And that is very encouraging. In this context, the IMF has been supportive since October or even before October, and will be supportive of the authorities’ efforts.

 

If these discussions that we will continue next week provide assurances that the authorities are committed to the program and that this is a program which will be important and successful for Ukraine, for the people of Ukraine, the IMF will be supportive.

 

So I think it’s not possible to speculate at this point in time, but I think we are doing our best, the authorities are doing their best, and in these circumstances, I think it will be feasible to agree on a common, a joint stance, as I said, which would be positive for the country as a whole.

[banker]

QUESTIONER: What about the budget deficit?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: As I just tried to explain to the first questioner, the budget deficit, because it was designed in late December and based on November projections, it is based on optimistic revenue figures. It's based on optimistic growth figures.

 

And, therefore, as the President already mentioned today and the government knows this very well, the budget needs to be assessed in a more realistic framework. And authorities haven’t been doing that. We have been discussing this with them. In that context, some collective measures are necessary to make sure that the budget is financeable with resorting to inflation or without leading to major depreciation of the currency.

 

So what we have discussed with the authorities is trying to look at the revenues from a more realistic perspective. And we have agreed with them that if they could take measures, some legislative changes which could lead to some savings, then we would be ready to discuss a higher deficit than the one percent we were discussing back in Kiev. In Kiev, we were focusing on a one-percent of GDP deficit. But this is based on, as I said, more realistic assumptions.

 

If the authorities are able to find World Bank and bilateral support to finance the deficit in a non-inflationary way and take some measures to make sure that the fiscal situation is sustainable going forward, […] because we need to have a medium-term perspective. We can't just have a two-, three-month perspective. So if that’s the case, then I think we could agree on a budget deficit which is higher than the one percent we discussed back in Kiev.

 

QUESTIONER: I mean, up to three percent? Up to five percent?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: I don’t think it’s good to speculate right now. We are discussing these issues with the Authorities. I don’t think it helps anyone to put figures down now, because the starting point is different.

 

The authorities have, as you know, a growth forecast of 0.04 percent of GDP. Our growth forecast is different from that, which implies different projections for revenues and a different deficit than what is in the budget right now.

 

So, as I said, we will discuss with the authorities and everyone has the same objective. We want to make sure that the fiscal balances are sustainable, and that it’s financed through non-inflationary means.

 

So we have agreed on this end objective. And the key is how to get there without having to go through very harsh measures or austerity measures. And in that context, it's important to be able to mobilize some additional financing to be able to not resort to such measures, which could mean hardship for people or which could be difficult given the recession which is already ongoing.

 

So I don’t think it helps to talk about a specific figure at this point in time. I think what you should take from this is that the objective is to come up with measures, with additional financing, and a fiscal stance which would mean that the end result is not inflationary and that there are no major harsh measures for people. And so this is the objective. And how we get to that, we will have to see in the coming weeks.

 

QUESTIONER: How much external financing do you think that Ukraine is going to need to be able to comfortably deal with the budget deficit of three percent or more?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: I think what the authorities have been envisaging is about US$5 billion in additional financing. This is what the Prime Minister has said in her press briefing. I think this would be comfortable for them, to be able to reach a public finance stance as I just discussed before. But in our projection, even more limited amounts would allow them to reach a fiscally sustainable stance.

 

QUESTIONER: Have you spoken about limits on the currency reserve and has that changed at all?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: You mean the international reserve target?

 

QUESTIONER: Correct, yes.

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: No; the authorities have been adhering to those targets so far, and also according to the end December target, so there hasn’t been much discussion on that yet.

 

QUESTIONER: Okay. And when are you going back to Kiev?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: As I said, we are hoping to hear from the authorities early next week. I understand that next week is a busy week for them, with some discussions at the Parliament, some key appointments. So based on that, they have told us that they will send us a letter Monday or Tuesday telling us when they would like us to go back, and accordingly, we will plan it.

 

QUESTIONER: I just had a question about whether you expect that there would be much possibility at all of Ukraine getting money from private sector lenders, or just to clarify your position, is that now looking extremely unlikely?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: What I meant by that is that domestically it’s difficult because Ukraine doesn’t have an institutional investor base. The banking system is recapitalizing and trying to deal with its own challenges. So domestically, it’s difficult to raise financing.

 

Externally, the CDS spreads have been very high, and therefore, the cost of financing externally from the private sector is currently very costly. Now, once the authorities—their plans and their anti-crisis measures and some progress is made, I would hope to see those spreads come down, because I think they are rather exaggerated, from our perspective. But as the cost of financing comes down, and as the global financial situation improves, I would think there would be much more interest in the country which has enormous potential.

 

I have seen in the news some real sector companies increasing their presence in Ukraine. And most recently I think I have read about Coca Cola increasing its presence. So I would think that with a large population and demand, there would be private sector involvement going forward in the country.

 

But I’m sure at this point in time, the private financial sector is looking at the commitment, the crisis management strategy, not only in Ukraine, but all sorts of other emerging market countries, as well. So that will be the crucial point that will determine how access to private sector financing will be feasible.

 

In terms of foreign banks which are currently present in Ukraine, they have been very committed. As you know, they have announced that they are

recapitalizing their banks. The parent banks made specific announcements that they are committed to roll over the debt that is owed by the subsidiary. So from that perspective, these are all positive news, that there’s commitment to the subsidiaries of these parent banks.

 

Obviously, continued equal treatment of the banks in Ukraine is going to be critical to maintain that type of positive approach from the foreign banks. And in that context, the NBU has to make sure that its operations are transparent, that they’re equally provided to all banks; and my understanding is, the NBU has been working on that.

 

QUESTIONER: My question is, what do you think are the main risks for the banking system this year, specifically with regard to consumers likely to default on their mortgage loans denominated in dollars? Thank you.

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: I think this is a very good question, but a very difficult question to answer, because this is, as you know, this is not a question which is applicable to Ukraine only. Many countries in the region are facing similar problems, where non-performing loans are increasing due to exchange rate changes or unemployment increases or other reasons which affect the payment capacity of the borrowers.

 

In the case of Ukraine, my understanding is that the banks have been working closely with the borrowers to be able to provide terms for restructuring these debts in terms of lengthening maturities and so on. There was an effort coordinated by Minister Pynzenyk in December, and the NBU has also been working on this.

 

But more importantly, in the context of the recapitalization program, which was precisely built on this forecast, that as the economy goes through a more difficult time, the banks would need additional capital to be able to roll over their loans or restructure their loans so that you wouldn’t have a capital crunch and a credit crunch.

 

From that perspective, I think Ukraine is in a very good position, having done the diagnostics, having allowed the banks or asked the banks to recapitalize themselves so that they are in a much better position to sit down with the borrowers and agree on terms—which is basically burden sharing. So that the borrowers can have some terms which would allow them to pay back, and that way the banks can benefit from continued payment on these loans.

 

So I think it is a challenge, it’s going to require on both sides decisions and some coordinated action, and also from the authorities’ side close monitoring and making sure that there are standardized contracts, that the banks are in a good position to be able to roll over or restructure these loans.

 

And then in that sense, there needs to be progress. And it is important that the government, together with the NBU, puts together such a strategy. There has been some work on it, but I think more needs to be done going forward.

 

QUESTIONER: Is there a critical percentage for these non-payments after which basically the system is going to collapse or – I mean didn’t you give this 30 percent stress-figure to the banks? Is there a critical point beyond which it’s unrepairable? Thank you.

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: The banks have worked on diagnostic studies which have a stress test which looked at the depreciation of the currency, the decline in GDP, and so on, and the banks’ non-performing loans have been increasing, but they’re not at the same level as the stress test yet. And therefore, this effort to recapitalize them and to sit down and agree on terms that the borrowers can adhere to is critical in making sure non-performing loans do not exponentially increase.

 

Like you said, we have looked at many other countries’ experiences, and the key lesson from bank restructuring is prompt resolution and prompt diagnostics and promptly capitalize the banks. The possibility, as I said, of coming with terms which will lead to a voluntary restructuring, and therefore, allowing the non-performing loans to moderate is going to be possible.

 

I don’t think it’s possible to come up with a figure at which, you know, X percent in the system becomes impossible to salvage. I don’t think that’s a very meaningful discussion. But I think the key point is to make sure that the banks consistently, realistically look at how they are performing, what’s happening with the loan, and ensuring that the authorities and the NBU are taking the action and the measures necessary to address these challenges.

 

QUESTIONER: I just wanted to ask you whether you had a reaction to the size of the commitment that the EBRD and the World Bank announced this morning for central Europe in light of some of the sort of estimates that you have of the external financing needs in addition that Ukraine would need to, you know, for sort of an acceptable deficit figure to be arrived at and so on?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: My understanding of this is more support of the parent banks in order to allow their subsidiaries to be well capitalized and to avoid the situation that the previous questioner asked. It’s not necessarily budget support, per se, it’s more support to the banks, the parent banks, which will help their subsidiaries to address the challenges they are facing in the region.

[banker]

QUESTIONER: I was wondering if there’s been any discussions regarding Ukraine’s currency, the difference between the official and the market rate?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: I think, yes, we have been discussing this with the Central Bank. As you know, the letter that was signed by the authorities, the idea is to make sure that the official exchange rate is in line with the market exchange rate, and this is one of the issues that we will be discussing with them going forward, especially in the coming weeks.

 

What the authorities have done is, they have introduced in November and December foreign exchange reserve auctions, where it’s a transparent and a good process. They have been going on with these auctions. But we have to also acknowledge that, in the case of Ukraine, in the last few months, there have been so many public statements about what the exchange rate should be or what it is and all sorts of announcements, that this has also triggered a major move towards foreign exchange.

 

And in that context, I think, as the Central Bank puts together these instruments and tries to stabilize the market so that you don’t see these drastic daily movements, it’s very important that the communication strategy is left to the Central Bank, that the others refrain from making all sorts of comments about what the exchange rate should be.

 

So I think if the Central Bank can achieve, and from the discussion today of the party, the President, the Prime Minister, the opposition party, as well as the Central Bank, the President did say that, going forward, it will be important to allow the institutions responsible to make the necessary announcements about the policy rates or the exchange rate policy and so on.

 

I think if that environment is reached, with the tools available to the National Bank, and confidence returning to the system, we should see much better practices going forward.

 

QUESTIONER: Could you maybe just speak more generally about how dire the situation is? I mean we can read into the figures, we can see what’s going on. I mean from your experience, I mean how dire is the situation in Ukraine? And speed seems to be the big issue here, and you know, how quickly they can access that external financing, as well, is another issue. Do you have anything to say on that?

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: Well, I think the situation in the world is dire, so we live in the U.S., the situation here is very difficult. Compared to a few months ago, many of these countries are going through a difficult time. We can’t keep up with projections. The projections keep going down and down and down. So the situation, I would say, is dire globally. Even countries which were seen as immune from the crisis, it’s very clear that they haven’t been.

 

The exports of many of the Asian countries have been declining by 40 – 50 percent and so on. In the case of Ukraine, they were hit very early on because of the steel price, and steel price declined by 60 percent between July and October, and this is 40 percent of their exports and their major industry. So they were hit much earlier, and they actually reacted very quickly.

 

They came to the IMF, they put together a program and so on. And I think at the time, it looked like some of that was temporary, but it looks now that a lot of the problems, global financial problems, global economic problems, are going to be more protracted than were seen earlier on.

 

So, yes, that makes Ukraine’s challenges difficult. But we think that these challenges are manageable, that they can address these challenges. And as the President said today, the government keeps saying, the key is to agree on a strategy and to implement it.

 

As long as it’s done, I think the crisis will be manageable. But we should all accept and acknowledge it as difficult. It’s difficult for people, it’s difficult for the industry, because the last five years we were in a booming economy, and everyone could borrow, and all that has changed now.

 

We need to adjust to the new circumstances. But Ukraine has also a very flexible economy, with good crisis management, with good decision-making. We really think they should be able to overcome this crisis.

 

OPERATOR: And I have no questions in the cue at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

 

MS. PAZARBASIOGLU: All right. Thank you very much for listening in. These are difficult times for everyone concerned. And I would like to end with a positive turn that we are very encouraged by today’s announcements by the authorities, and their solid determination to move the program forward, and also working together with the opposition. And as the IMF, we have been very supportive of Ukraine, and we will work very hard with them so that the crisis is not so hard on the country. Thank you.

 

MS. LOTZE: Thank you very much. We conclude the conference call here.

[_max_]

1. IMF MISSION CHIEF TO UKRAINE HOLDS PRESS CONFERENCE

ON ECONOMIC PROGRAM OF THE UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES

 

А можно было ссылочку просто дать, чтобы не растягивать форум???

[_max_]

отклонили вчера план помощи восточной Европе, но даже если бы приняли, Украине не досталось бы все равно.

 

Надо еще разобраться о чем речь шла - то ли о информации до саммита, то ли после. Но, по крайней мере, подтверждения пока нигде не видел - так что, возможно, уже устаревшая инфо...

В любом случае, то что "руку помощи" нам протягивать не хотят уже говорит о чем-то...доигрались уже....

[banker]

А можно было ссылочку просто дать, чтобы не растягивать форум???

 

а где ты видел сайты с подобным контентом?

лучше по делу прокомментировать, чем советы дельны давать

 

имхо:

1. соглашаются они на дефицитный бюджет - для курса гривны это плохо, но для экономики в целом нормально.

2. довольны действиями НБУ - значит будет ЦБ продолжать курс и "рекомендовать" в устной форме уровни торговли.

3. банк рекапитализация, а точнее результат всех устроил, осталось посмотреть на исполнение договоренностей

4. резервов вроде и монетарн базы пересмотр не нужен, а вот дефицит могут принять - опять-таки давление на курс.

[Nonstop]

Вместо того, чтобы гоняться за спекулянтами как Дон Кихот за ветряными мельницами, могли бы поднять официальный курс до 8,5 и смотреть на вещи реально...

Сегодня слышал новость, что из 20 млрд. евро (или что-то около того) которые напрявят на помощь странам восточной Европы Украине не достанется ничего....нам остается расчитывать только на МВФ и ЕБРР(а он предлагает деньги только под конкретные инвестиционные проекты...)8-)

 

Кстати, внимательно присмотритесь, что делает НБУ...

Оно разрешает банкам держать о...тельные спрэды. И никак их за это не наказывает. И к чему это приводит?

С одной стороны это загоняет рынок в тень, но... с другой снижает ажиотажный спрос на валюту у населения.

Если бы ещё с банков брали в казну половину спрэда, то ни о каком дефиците бюджета даже слышно не было...

Правда тогда потребуется суперборьба с чёрным рынком...

 

Как ЮВТ ещё это не предложила?

Думаю, что вскоре могут такой вариант реализовать. При этом сделают минимальный спрэд в размере 10%.

[Nonstop]

а где ты видел сайты с подобным контентом?

.

 

Transcript of a Press Conference on Economic Program of the Ukrainian Authorities

With Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, IMF Mission Chief to Ukraine

Washington, D.C., Friday, February 27, 2009

 

www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2009/tr022709.htm

 

А вообще, если это интересно, то рекомендую переодически просматривать:

 

www.imf.org/external/country/ukr/index.htm

[_max_]

а где ты видел сайты с подобным контентом?

лучше по делу прокомментировать, чем советы дельны давать

 

имхо:

1. соглашаются они на дефицитный бюджет - для курса гривны это плохо, но для экономики в целом нормально.

2. довольны действиями НБУ - значит будет ЦБ продолжать курс и "рекомендовать" в устной форме уровни торговли.

3. банк рекапитализация, а точнее результат всех устроил, осталось посмотреть на исполнение договоренностей

4. резервов вроде и монетарн базы пересмотр не нужен, а вот дефицит могут принять - опять-таки давление на курс.

 

1. на "ты" мы не переходили

2. ну если весь текст не копировался, а набирался вручную - респект и уважение автору

3. что до комментариев - информация про МВФ уже появилась во многих СМИ, ну например: news.finance.ua/ru/~/2/0/all/2009/03/02/153376

Посмотрим как договорятся. У нас все всё обещают, да вот с выполнением трудно приходится...

А дефицит бюджета еще пересмотреть надо + ухудшение прогноза ВВП на 2009 год автоматически уменьшает доходную часть, что в свою очередь, увеличивает дефицит. То есть расходную часть надо ужимать и очень серьезно...а тут еще выборы на носу...

Рекапитализация банков мера необходимая для банковской системы - посмотрим сколько еще введут временных администраций и какую общую сумму придется влить(ведь надо спасать не только первые 17 банков) - а курс грн. это будет толкать только вверх.

[alyak]

2. довольны действиями НБУ - значит будет ЦБ продолжать курс и "рекомендовать" в устной форме уровни торговли.

 

Я думаю что МВФ просто не представляет и не понимает что происходит , я как-то был участником проыерки одной международной организации , да и думаю многие банкиры были , когда вроде и в интерсах организации делается , а вроде каждому говорят что отвечать . В итоге создается эмуляция того видения что хочет представить тот кого проверяют . Т.е. проверяющие не докапываются до сути . А потом это позволяет интерпретировать как согласие проверяющих и расширять люфт до тех вещей которые они бы никогда не сказали бы . Наприер как интерпретированы слова фонда были литвиным - фонд требует повысить налоги и собрать еще 20 млрд гривен .

[_max_]

Кстати, внимательно присмотритесь, что делает НБУ...

Оно разрешает банкам держать о...тельные спрэды. И никак их за это не наказывает. И к чему это приводит?

С одной стороны это загоняет рынок в тень, но... с другой снижает ажиотажный спрос на валюту у населения.

Если бы ещё с банков брали в казну половину спрэда, то ни о каком дефиците бюджета даже слышно не было...

У нас сейчас в стране самый прибыльный и ходовой бизнес - обмен валют.

Наверное, какой-то налог смогут/поробуют ввести - надо же чем-то бюджетные дыры закрывать. Хотя....

Мне больше понравился ход НБУ, когда после нового года она отменили свое же решение, об обязательной продаже банками валюты, купленной под фиктивные импортные контракты.

[Марыля]

Но, по крайней мере, подтверждения пока нигде не видел - так что, возможно, уже устаревшая инфо...

В любом случае, то что "руку помощи" нам протягивать не хотят уже говорит о чем-то...доигрались уже....

02 марта 2009 г. 12:23

Лидеры ЕС отказались выделить 180 миллиардов евро Восточной Европе

 

Лидеры Евросоюза ответили отказом на просьбу членов ЕС в Центральной и Восточной Европе выделить им финансовую помощь в размере 180 миллиардов евро.

 

Merkel, EU reject bailout for eastern Europe- AP

Евросоюз не намерен помогать восточной европе.

 

Подтверждение это или нет - не знаю.

Говорят о начале развала ЕС - гл. новость на сегодня. Так что скупайте $, золото.

[riselost]

У нас сейчас в стране самый прибыльный и ходовой бизнес - обмен валют.

Наверное, какой-то налог смогут/поробуют ввести - надо же чем-то бюджетные дыры закрывать. Хотя....

Мне больше понравился ход НБУ, когда после нового года она отменили свое же решение, об обязательной продаже банками валюты, купленной под фиктивные импортные контракты.

 

А кто промониторит такой объем контрактов? Хватит надсмотрщиков? Разве это не психологическая, и не более составляющая?

[_max_]

www.epravda.com.ua/news/49abcfdc4122d/

К чему бы это Киреева ставят на монетный двор? прежний не хотел так много гривны печатать?

[_max_]

А кто промониторит такой объем контрактов? Хватит надсмотрщиков? Разве это не психологическая, и не более составляющая?

Мониторить там не сложнее, чем проверять сейчас отклонение продаж валюты банками от официального курса. Фишка была в другом - валюту надо было продать назад по курсу покупки (5,3 грн., 6 грн. и т.д.)

Я это к чему - насколько коррумпирована вся наша страна, настолько и НБУ. Там где хорошо подмазали - они закрывают глаза.... И сейчас продают валюту по 7,8, а клиентам банки ее продают по 9,1-9,3 грн....

[OlegSM]

02 марта 2009 г. 12:23

 

Говорят о начале развала ЕС - гл. новость на сегодня. Так что скупайте $, золото.

 

ну тогда слова Аляка о курсе 20-40 - это наше реальное будущее...

[A-L-N]

Тихо как-то...

[iko]

Тихо как-то...

 

Если скучно, прочтите это www.2bz.ru/progn1.htm

желательно не на ночь.

О каком курсе гривны к долл мы говорим в этом случае?

[irina]

Если скучно, прочтите это www.2bz.ru/progn1.htm

желательно не на ночь.

О каком курсе гривны к долл мы говорим в этом случае?

Альяк прокоментируйте пожалуйста эту статью

[NICKOLAY]

походу отката по баксу наметили-))) интересно на долго ли и до скольки? до 8?

[рыбак]

Тихо как-то...

ждем подачки от МВФ.

больше всего ждут Приватбанк и Укрэксимбанк,которым нужно заплатить в марте 200 и 345 млн дол( будут стараться полит.рычагами понизить курс что б скупиться ). да и Нефтегаз 400 дол до 7 обещался проплатить.

А вот когда нужные скупятся , тогда и ...валютные горки начнутся, ,вообщем можете считать это моим прогнозом.

Кстати именно Приват рулил подъёмом недавнего курса,видать бумагу готовил для дешовой закупки

[рыбак]

походу отката по баксу наметили-))) интересно на долго ли и до скольки? до 8?

видать ребята из НБ мои прежние посты почитали ,по поводу скупки бакса с 1по 10 для кредитов,и решили (во благо вал. кредитчиков)снять таким образом давление на курс в эти дни.

Поэтому прогнозировать курс будет сложно.

Думаю ,что основные "движняки " будут после 16 марта.